India to Contribute 6% of Global Trade Growth, Ranked Third Behind US and China

India is likely to achieve significant gains in international trade over the next five years, adding approximately 6 percent to the growth of the world's trade. This is second only to China at 12 percent and the United States at 10 percent, says a collaborative study by DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business.

The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 foresees India holding its third position in the size of trade and rising by 15 positions to 17th position in trade speed, with its growth rate in annual trade going up from 5.2 percent to 7.2 percent.

The report indicated that India ranked as the 13th biggest player in global trade in 2024, but its volume of trade expanded at a compound annual rate of 5.2 percent from 2019 to 2024, while global trade increased by only 2.0 percent.

"India's rapid growth in trade is a sign of its rapid economic development and increased participation in global trade," the report said.

"The Trade Atlas highlights India's tremendous growth in international trade, positioning the country as a critical bridge between east and west. Though we anticipate an increase in the volume of trade and proportionate share of international trade, we are guarded in our optimism regarding the future given the general volatility of the global economy," opined R S Subramanian, SVP South Asia, DHL Express.

Notably, the report observes that despite the general perception that China is a more trade-oriented economy than India, "India's goods trade-to-GDP ratio was almost as high as China's in 2023, and India's trade intensity exceeded China's if both goods and services are considered."

To support its projections, the report added that robust expectations for India's future trade growth are supported by large new foreign investments made by companies in India's manufacturing industry.

India was in 2023 the second most trending destination worldwide for new foreign investment, just after the U.S. The report adds that manufacturing is the most dominant sector for such investments in India currently.

It also goes on to suggest that Asian countries, such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, and India, will grow tremendously. South Asia as well as Southeast Asia is poised to perform better than other countries in terms of trade growth, the report observes.

"Asia is now a key part of the world economy as supply chains evolve and shift," stated Ken Lee, Asia Pacific CEO of DHL Express.