10 June, 2025:
According to Bloomberg calculations based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, China, India, and the United States are projected to be the top three global growth engines from 2025 to 2030. This underscores India's emergence as a pivotal driver of global economic momentum, propelled by visionary leadership, structural reforms, digital innovation, and the unmatched spirit of its 1.4 billion citizens.
India's economic path is characterized by strong growth, with a 6.3% per annum GDP growth forecast between 2024 and 2028. This makes India one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. Contributing to this growth are strong domestic demand, an increase in the working-age population, and considerable investments in infrastructure and digitalization. The nation's digital economy is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, driven by initiatives like the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and rapid 5G adoption.
China is expected to make a 23.8% contribution to economic growth in the world during the period. In spite of setbacks like a slowing real estate sector and weakening consumer confidence, the country's large industrial base and export power continue to support its position on the economic front. Estimates suggest that China's industrial output will represent 45% of the world's production by 2030, making it a manufacturing and export powerhouse.
The United States continues to be a major driver of world economic growth, with a forecast of 2.2% GDP growth in 2025. This is on account of robust consumption spending and productivity growth. Nevertheless, factors like trade tensions and fiscal policies can threaten sustained growth.
Though China's, India's, and the United States' combined contributions highlight a shift of global economic trends towards Asia, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting global growth at 3.2% for 2024 and slightly below that in 2025. Some of the factors feeding this expectation are geopolitical tensions, policies for curtailing inflation, and structural issues like old-age population and low productivity.
Due to fading supply-chain disruptions and the boom in the service sector, India and China will contribute more than 50 per cent of the global growth in the upcoming year, according to the IMF. Asia will be a major driver of global growth, with other countries, apart from China and India, contributing another 25 per cent.
China, India, and the United States' economic paths over the coming decades identify a dynamic international economic environment, with Asia and, specifically, India increasingly at the center of international growth.
