Exit polls for the 2026 Assembly elections across key states have painted a dramatic and politically significant picture, with projections indicating major gains for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal and Assam, while Kerala appears set for a shift in power towards the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).
In West Bengal, most exit polls suggest a tight but decisive edge for the BJP, marking a potential breakthrough in a state long dominated by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC). High voter turnout touching record levels above 90% is being seen as a key factor influencing projections. Analysts note that such unprecedented participation often signals a strong anti-incumbency push, which may have worked in BJP’s favour.
The contest in Bengal has been one of the most closely watched in the country, with intense campaigning and polarisation. Exit poll trends indicate that the BJP may have made significant inroads in both urban and semi-urban constituencies, though rural belts remain competitive. However, experts caution that Bengal has historically produced surprises, and exit poll accuracy in the state has been mixed in past elections.
In Assam, exit polls broadly project a comfortable return for the BJP-led alliance. The party, which has focused heavily on governance, infrastructure, and identity politics, appears to have retained its core support base. With voter turnout crossing 85%, the projections suggest continuity rather than change, with the opposition struggling to consolidate votes effectively.
Meanwhile, Kerala presents a contrasting picture. Multiple exit polls predict a comeback for the Congress-led UDF, potentially ending the Left Democratic Front’s (LDF) tenure under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Several projections place the UDF well above the majority mark of 71 seats in the 140-member Assembly, with estimates ranging between 70 and 90 seats.
The Kerala outcome, if accurate, would mark a return to the state’s traditional pattern of alternating governments, which was broken in 2021 when the LDF retained power. Exit poll data also suggests that younger voters and male voters have leaned towards the UDF, while the LDF continues to hold pockets of support among women and older demographics.
Overall, the exit polls point to a politically transformative moment across states possible BJP expansion in eastern India, stability in the northeast, and a revival of Congress-led forces in the south. However, as always, exit polls are only indicative. The final results, to be declared on May 4, will determine whether these projections hold or once again defy expectations.
