Bihar Polls: Litmus Test for Nitish, Tejashwi, Chirag, Kishor

The upcoming Bihar elections are set to be a critical test for four key figures shaping the state’s political landscape. At the forefront is Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, the veteran leader whose indispensability to the ruling NDA cannot be overstated despite concerns over his health. His ability to command support from the Kurmi-Kushwaha bloc and other Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) remains a cornerstone of the NDA’s electoral strategy. Data from the 2023 Bihar caste survey highlights that EBCs constitute 36 per cent of the population, while the Kurmi-Kushwaha community accounts for 7 per cent. Even without the Muslim EBC vote, Nitish retains a core support base of approximately 33 per cent, a formula that will be tested in the upcoming polls.

For RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, the elections represent a chance to consolidate his father Lalu Yadav’s legacy. Having led RJD to win 75 of the 144 seats it contested in 2020, Tejashwi faces the challenge of negotiating seat-sharing with Congress, which continues to assert its dominance and demands a substantial number of winnable seats. Balancing alliances with the Vikassheel Insaan Party, JMM, and the LJP faction led by Pashupati Paras adds further complexity to the Mahagathbandhan’s strategy.

Chirag Paswan, the young Dalit leader, remains a pivotal player in the NDA equation. After initially quitting the NDA in 2020 and later rejoining in 2023, Chirag has contested key seats and secured a Union Cabinet position under PM Narendra Modi. His vocal criticism of Bihar’s law and order and influence in seat-sharing negotiations make him a factor the NDA must carefully manage, especially given his father Ram Vilas Paswan’s enduring political legacy.

Finally, Prashant Kishor, the renowned poll strategist, will make his electoral debut through his Jan Suraaj Party. Founded in 2022, the party is perceived as a potential spoiler capable of accommodating rebels from various sides. Kishor’s outreach and popularity, particularly among the youth, will test whether his public influence can translate into tangible votes on the ground.

As Bihar heads to the polls, these four leaders will define the state’s political future, each facing unique challenges and opportunities in a highly competitive electoral landscape.