Fitch Warns: India, Other Emerging Economies Face Risk of Trump Tariffs

India, Brazil, and Vietnam are the most exposed to U.S. retaliatory tariffs, according to a report released by Fitch Ratings on March 28, 2025. The report says that these countries impose higher tariffs on imports from the U.S. than the U.S. imposes on exports to these countries, and this can trigger retaliatory measures from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Fitch clarified that the U.S.-India tariff gap is 3.8% trade-weighted and 8.7% on a simple average basis. India, for instance, charges an average tariff of 12.4% on American goods while America charges only 3.7% on Indian imports. 

The largest gaps are in product categories such as foodstuffs with a tariff margin of 40%, then animal products and stone and glass.

Trump has promised to impose retaliatory tariffs from April 2 on nations that he accuses of "stealing" from the United States.

 India, which has a trade surplus of nearly $44 billion with the U.S., is worst hit and there are calls being made to relax trade barriers.

In the aftermath of these events, India is also in active negotiations with the U.S. for a bilateral trade treaty, with U.S. trade representatives in Delhi negotiating terms to balance the impacts of such tariffs. 

The events bring into focus the complexity of world trade relationships and the difficulty of emerging economies in attempting to maneuver tariff interventions by dominant world economies.