India’s merchandise imports from Russia witnessed a sharp 40.48% decline in January 2026, dropping to $2.86 billion from $4.81 billion in January 2025, according to the latest official trade data. The steep fall has been largely attributed to a significant reduction in Russian crude oil purchases by Indian refiners.
Petroleum crude traditionally accounts for nearly 80% of India’s total imports from Russia. Sources familiar with the matter estimate that crude imports in January stood at around $2.3 billion, possibly even lower. While detailed product-wise data is yet to be officially released, apart from crude oil, India imports coal, coke, fertilisers, iron, newsprint, project goods, pulses, and precious stones from Russia.
The downturn in Russian crude imports began earlier in the financial year. In April 2025, imports had peaked at $4.73 billion. However, geopolitical and trade developments soon altered the trajectory. The United States had increased pressure on India regarding Russian oil purchases and, in late August, imposed an additional 25% punitive tariff on certain Indian merchandise exports. By September, Russian crude imports had fallen to $3.32 billion nearly 30% lower than April levels.
Indian refiners have since indicated a shift in sourcing strategy. Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), India’s largest private refiner, had earlier stated it was not expecting any Russian crude deliveries in January. With refining capacity exceeding 68 million tonnes per annum, such decisions significantly impact trade volumes.
Market watchers suggest imports from Russia may decline further as Indian refiners explore comparatively cheaper Venezuelan crude options. The US has signalled support for India purchasing Venezuelan oil, even withdrawing the earlier punitive tariff after India reportedly committed to reducing Russian oil imports.
Interestingly, Russian crude supplies to India were negligible before 2022 but surged dramatically thereafter, crossing $50 billion in 2024–25. January’s data now signals a notable recalibration in India’s energy trade strategy.
