Nitish Kumar’s Influence Tested as NDA Finalises Bihar Seat-Sharing Deal

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has finalized its seat-sharing formula for the upcoming Bihar assembly election, setting off fresh debates over Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s diminishing influence within the coalition. Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United) will contest 101 seats each, a rare parity that signals a significant shift from past elections. Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas) has been allocated 29 seats, while Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha will contest six seats each.

This is the first time the JD(U) and BJP are contesting an equal number of constituencies in Bihar, a move widely viewed as a reduction in Nitish Kumar’s bargaining power within the NDA. The arrangement contrasts sharply with the 2020 assembly election, when the JD(U) contested 115 seats but won only 43, while the BJP won 74 of the 110 it contested. The JD(U)’s poor showing then was largely attributed to the LJP’s decision to field candidates against it in over a hundred constituencies.

The new seat-sharing deal comes amid visible unrest inside the JD(U). Several leaders have voiced discontent over the selection of candidates and the internal functioning of the party. Bhagalpur MP Ajay Kumar Mandal recently wrote to Nitish Kumar, alleging he was not consulted in ticket distribution and offering to resign. The chief minister’s limited public appearances and reported health concerns have also sparked speculation that he is less active in managing both the campaign and party affairs.

Insiders suggest that some JD(U) leaders are uneasy about seat swaps with the BJP, fearing they could lose their constituencies. The re-emergence of internal factions, coupled with the perception that Nitish Kumar no longer controls the alliance dynamics as firmly as before, has intensified the uncertainty.

Despite the internal rumblings, NDA leaders have projected confidence, saying the coalition remains united and is working cohesively toward victory. The filing of nominations for the first phase ends on October 17, and for the second on October 20.

While the NDA grapples with its internal balance, the opposition Mahagathbandhan has yet to finalize its seat-sharing formula, with tensions reportedly growing between the RJD and Congress. As Bihar heads into another high-stakes election, Nitish Kumar’s leadership  once unchallenged   now faces one of its toughest political tests.