Scotland's hopes of reaching the FIFA World Cup knockout stage for the first time have suffered a dramatic blow, with their qualification chances plunging from 42% to just 5.26% in a little over 24 hours, according to Opta's latest projections.
Steve Clarke's side finished third in Group C after a disappointing campaign that ended with a heavy 3-0 defeat to Brazil national football team. Scotland had earlier defeated Haiti but then lost to both Morocco and Brazil, leaving them with only three points and a goal difference of -3.
The situation worsened as results elsewhere went against the Scots. Ecuador national football team stunned Germany with a 2-1 victory, while other outcomes, including draws involving Paraguay, Australia, Japan and Sweden, pushed Scotland further down the ranking of third-placed teams.
Under the expanded 48-team World Cup format, the top two teams from each group automatically qualify for the Round of 32, along with the eight best third-placed teams from the 12 groups. Scotland currently sit on the edge of those qualification places and now require several favourable results from the remaining group matches to keep their campaign alive.
According to various qualification scenarios, Scotland need at least four results from other groups to go in their favour, including specific outcomes involving matches such as Senegal vs Iraq, Egypt vs Iran, and DR Congo vs Uzbekistan. Even then, their progression would depend on goal difference calculations and other tiebreakers.
Manager Steve Clarke admitted after the defeat to Brazil that Scotland are "probably going home," reflecting the disappointment of a team that had returned to the World Cup finals for the first time since 1998 with high hopes of making history.
For now, the Tartan Army can do little more than watch and hope. While elimination is not yet mathematically certain, Scotland's World Cup dream is now hanging by the thinnest of threads.
